Phil Rowe +140 (7400) vs. Orion Cosce -165 (8800)
We have two up and coming fighters that are evenly matched in this fight. Rowe is a physical specimen for the welterweight division with his size and reach. Cosce has shown some serious promise and is undefeated as well as he has finished every fighter he has faced thus far. This is a toss up fight, if these two guys decide to trade in the center of the octagon we favor Cosce to get it done due to his power and precision in his boxing. The alternative is that Rowe keeps this fight at distance using his length and employing well timed grappling as Cosce begins to slow down. Rowe has a superior gas tank to Cosce previous competition and we have not seen him taken into deep waters by a good fighter yet. With all of this being said we favor the underdog to get it done by decision but our confidence in this pick wavers.
Prediction: Rowe by Decision
Bet: Fade (Even though these two fighters have had a huge finish rate we could see this fight easily going to decision and will be avoiding it all together)
Draft Kings: Rowe is a good play at the price and would also recommend playing a Cosce or two because of the potential RD 1 KO.
Ryan Benoit -130 (8300) vs. Zarrukh Adashev +110 (7900)
Two explosive fighters for this weight class will have a chance to redirect their careers with a win here. Both fighters are more talented than their professional and UFC records would indicate. Adashev comes from a kickboxing background and is extremly green in MMA with a record of 3-3. He ran into two tough stylistic matchups in his first two UFC fights and has not gotten an opportunity to showcase himself as a high level striker. Benoit on the other hand has had his highs and lows in the UFC so far, but has proven to be a tough out for anyone he faces. Last fight was a tough decision loss to Tim Elliot in what looked to be one of Benoit best all around performances and one in which many thought he won. Generally has issues with volume but makes up for it with power and physical abilities. He has had issues making weight in the past, most recently back in March he was hospitalized following his weight cut, but he looked good at weigh ins for this one. We definitely see a scenario where Adashev throws more volume and wins a technical decision. Alternately we believe Benoit power makes a difference and will throw Adashev on his back foot and allow Benoit to land the more significant strikes and even mix in some grappling as the fight wears on. Even though both these fighters have the ability to get a KO the more likely outcome will be a decision.
Prediction: Benoit by Deciscion
Bet: Small bet on Benoit here but very close fight. Also a dangerous game when dealing with UFC judges in decision fights.
Draft Kings: Benoit is playable at 8300 but with so many fights on this card pick and choose where he deploy him. Same goes for Adashev but we will be leaning 75/25 for Benoit.
Jinh Yu Frey +125 (7800) vs. Ashley Yoder -150 (8400)
Who the fuck cares? Neither of these fighters really excel over each other in any aspect of MMA. Frey even in her wins tends to throw extremely low volume, she landed 24 significant strikes in her last win against De Paula. She was able to mix in some takedowns and control that fight however Yoder is a black belt in BJJ and should have the skills to prevent and real control from Frey. With this fight most likely taking place in the clinch and on the feet we think Yoder has more volume and a slight advantage in the clinch. In what should be a close and boring fight we favor Yoder to be more active and ultimately stealing a few close rounds.
Prediction: Yoder by Deciscion
Bet: Absolutely not.
Draft Kings: Do not play
(Your choice but we will not be watching this fight)
Danny Chavez +100 (8000) vs. Kai Kamaka -120 (8200)
We have a close fight here in what has the potential to be an absolute war, and a favorite to be fight of the night. Starting with Chavez we have a fighter who a solid stand up and probably has the power advantage and is a very strong kicker. In his two UFC fights he has gone the distance looking very good on his feet, the one downfall he has had so far was against Gordon who exploited his lack of grappling defense. On the other side we have Kamaka who is a decent athlete with a well rounded game. Kamaka is competent anywhere the fight goes but doesn’t necessarily excel in any one area. He was extremely active during Covid and has 4 fights since last July going 2-2 in those fights. He does tend to make the wrong decision with fights on the line and his fighter IQ has been called into question. However, we feel like his well rounded game and grappling will be the difference in this fight and expect a decision win.
Prediction: Kamaka by Deciscion
Bet: Small bet on Kamaka
Draft Kings: Decent play who whoever wins this fight at the price there will be plenty of action in this one to score.
Chris Gruetzemacher +250 (6700) vs. Rafa Garcia -310 (9500)
Despite what the line says here this fight is closer than many may think. Garcia is a gritty fighter and one good takeaway from his lone loss in the UFC was that he can take a punch and continue to move forward even when he was outgunned by a better fighter in Haqparast. Garcia is a skilled striker with plenty of power and will look get the action going early and often in this fight. Gruetzemacher is an average skilled fighter that chooses to move forward with pressure and throws everything into his punches and elbows. His downfall has been that he stands right in front of his opponents and with his limited physical gifts has found himself on the wrong end of some exchanges. Very poor head movement and to much faith in his chin has led to some early finishes as well as some great wars. We feel Garcia has the skills to get the finish here and a strong enough chin to weather and pressure from Gruetzemacher. This fight should take place standing and with no real threat of the takedown it should be an exciting fight and the longer it lasts the more of a chance Gruetzemacher has to pull off the upset.
Prediction: Garcia by RD 2 KO
Bet: No bet the line should be closer than it is.
Draft Kings: Tough to play Garcia at his price considering this fight is close however if he does get it done early he will make value.
Collin Anglin +120 (7600) vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan -140 (8600)
Two completely different stylistic fighters here. Baghdasaryan is an explosive striker who has had an incredible record of getting first round KO’s. He also showed a gas tank in his contender series fight winning a decision against a tough opponent. On the other side we have Anglin who has a wrestling background however he does tend to stand and throw with his opponents only going to his wrestling when he needs it. Anglin showed a good gas tank as well getting a decision win in his contender series fight. Although Anglin may be the more well rounded fighter he didn’t excel in any one category and we feel that Baghdasaryan advantage on the feet will be overwhelming in this one. We feel that Baghdasaryan will get off to such a fast start that even if he doesn’t get the finish it will be hard for Anglin to come back on the cards and we don’t think he has the ability to get the finish.
Prediction: Baghdasaryan by RD 1 KO
Bet: Baghdasaryan -140
Draft Kings: Baghdasaryan should score big here at 8600 will try and work him into as many lineups as possible.
Bryan Barberena -270 (9600) vs. Jason Witt +220 (6600)
This fight is pretty straight forward. Barberena is a well rounded fighter who would rather be in a war on the feet and is a decent athlete but makes up for any deficits there with grit and savagery. Witt on the other hand is a talented grappler that wants to get this fight to the ground immediately. Unfortunately for Witt his chin seems to be one of the biggest liabilities in the UFC right now. A part of us can possibly see a path to victory with Witt being a superior grappler but it’s almost impossible to pick against Barberena to not find Witt’s chin at some point throughout this fight. Barberena has also shown the ability to get up when taken down so the chances of Witt riding out rounds is even more far fetched.
Prediction: Barberena by Rd 2 KO
Bet: Small bet on Barberena by KO +150
Draft Kings: If you can afford him play him but its going to be hard to afford him on this card.
Niklas Stolze -200 (7000) vs. Jared Gooden +170 (6800)
Gooden who is taking this fight on short notice is a physical specimen. He has had two tough fights in the UFC so far but has shown flashes especially in his debut which was a battle with Jouban. Physical striker who wants to use his reach advantage to set up a powerful right over the top. He has shown a weakness in checking leg kicks and head movement which has ultimately led to his two decision defeats so far. Stolze on the other hand is also a lanky striker who wants to keep this fight standing. Powerful kicks were on display in his debut against Emeev but ended losing due to the grappling pressure and takedowns of Emeev. In a fight that should stay standing we give Stolze a slight advantage especially when you factor in the short notice for Gooden.
Prediction: Stolze by Decision
Bet: No bet
Draft Kings: Must play either way. Both fighters are 7000 and 6800 due to the late notice so whoever you think wins will make value no doubt.
Cheyanne Buys -170 (8900) vs. Gloria De Paula +145 (7300)
We don’t have much on either of these fighters. Buys has shown good athleticism and power striking for her weight class. De Paula has been underwhelming so far in the UFC including a loss to the previously mentioned Frey in what was a boring fight. She has struggled against superior physicality and has been unable to get her game off in the UFC so far. We don’t have a great feel for this fight however we hope with some more experience Buys will be able to keep this fight standing and begin to showcase her striking abilities.
Prediction: Buys by Deciscion
Bet: No
Draft Kings: Not much here. Buys is to expensive for the output we are expecting in this one.
Kyung Ho Kang -120 (8500) vs. Rani Yahya +100 (7700)
Grapplers delight here. Should be an entertaining fight, this fight comes down to two main points; cardio and game planning. Both fighters prefer to grapple and submit their opponents but we give the edge on the floor to Yahya. Yahya is very un-athletic and one dimensional in his strategy to drag you to the floor and get a submission. At 37 years of age this is becoming more difficult due to the grueling style of grappling if he can’t get it done in the first round. Although Kang usually prefers to take the fight to the ground, in this fight he would be better served keeping this fight on the feet and use his athleticism and superior striking to win a decision. We favor Kang to stay smart and have his cardio edge really take over in the second and cruise to a decision victory after some scary moments in round 1.
Prediction: Kang by Decision
Bet: Kang -120
Draft Kings: Kang scores well when he wins not a bad play at 8500. Also if you disagree with us and think Yahya can get it done in the first round he is a great play at 7700.
Uriah Hall +175 (6900) vs. Sean Strickland -210 (9300)
Both fighters would prefer to keep this fight standing. This is a battle of volume and pressure vs precision and power. If this fight ends early we expect Hall to win with one of his pinpoint accurate strikes but if this fight drags into the later rounds we believe Strickland should really start to take over with his pressure and his volume onslaught that will have Hall get dominated or wilt under pressure and get TKO in one of the later rounds. We do also believe that Strickland has a sizeable edge on the ground but judging by his previous fights we doubt he exploits this advantage unless he gets in trouble. He has an appetite for striking and seems to enjoy this sport more than the next. Hall is most definitely a live dog and has the capabilities of putting Strickland away but the smart pick on paper is Strickland. These two fighters know each other pretty well and we expect and exciting fight. On a card that is short of talent this fight will definitely be a bright spot for the night.
Prediction: Strickland by RD 4 TKO
Bet: Fight doesn’t go the decision -170
Draft Kings: Must play either way. Strickland should be the better play however at 6900 Hall could be a great piece in a really strong lineup if he wins.