UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw

Dianna Belbita -110 (7900) vs. Hannah Goldy -110 (8300)

This is the first fight of the night for a reason. You have two unproven fighters who are both still looking for their first UFC win. Goldy was unimpressive in her debut against Granger. Flashed decent boxing but was overwhelmed in the clinch. Since then she has pulled out of three consecutive fights with injuries and a positive Covid test. She may possess some power at 115 lbs but will struggle to consistently get her striking off. On the other side you have Belbita who is 0-2 in the UFC. Her debut was decision loss to McCann. She went into that fight as a +350 underdog and showed some flashes striking but was overpowered by McCann as the fight went on in the clinch and on the ground. In her second fight against Jojua her kickboxing looked strong early and then again went into a clinch that ended with her subbing to an arm bar. Belbita has some nice technical kickboxing when she can keep the distance and in this fight with Goldy being one dimensional as well we see this fight favoring Belbita. She should be able to overpower Goldy and if she gets in any trouble control her in the clinch.

Prediction: Belbita by Decision

Bets: Fade this fight

Draft Kings: Belbita is a decent play at 7900 if you need an underdog to fill out your lineup.

Sijara Eubanks -380 (9300) vs. Elise Reed +300 (6900)

Not much to say here. Eubanks out classes Reed and should be able to overpower her in this fight. Reed has looked good in the CFFC at Strawweight but against inferior competition. She was almost subbed twice in her last fight and I expect a clinic on the ground from Eubanks. Reed looked small and is moving up in weight to fight a fighter in Eubanks that just made the cut back down to flyweight. We expect Eubanks to get to work early and often and take this fight down to the ground as soon as possible. She will be chasing her first UFC finish and we are confident she gets it.

Prediction: Eubanks by Submission in Rd 1 or 2

Bets:Eubanks straight up at -380 is a good price considering the disparity between these fighters. If you want to take a little more risk you can get Eubanks at +150 inside the distance or +400 by submission.

Draft Kings: Its hard to pay 9300 for a fighter that hasn’t had a finish in the UFC but we expect the vet to go in here and dominate a fighter that isn’t in her league. We will be playing on a few cards when we can pay the premium.

Julio Arce -200 (9100) vs. Andre Ewell +170 (7100)

This fight is closer than the odds suggest. Arce is the more well rounded fighter but Ewell is a live dog for sure. Arce has underwhelmed as a big favorite before in his fight with Erosa. He ended up with a big KO in the 3rd round with a perfectly located head kick but up to that point was in a close fight with the striking exchanges going both ways. Ewell has a good chin and is a lanky fighter that will try and keep the distance and look to win a point war. We don’t think he has the power to put Arce away which is a concern for him especially with Arce having the advantage on the ground. Arce should be able to mix in some grappling and take down attempts while winning the striking exchanges with a more technical boxing approach. We are going to lean Arce by decision but far from confident in this pick.

Prediction: Arce by Deciscion

Bet: Fade

Draft Kings: Fade either way scores will most likely end up in the 60-70s.

Mickey Gall +150 (7500) vs. Jordan Williams -175 (8700)

If you have watched any of Jordan Williams fights you know your going to get some fireworks when this guy gets in the octagon. He is going down to a more natural weight class which should give him the size and strength advantage that he has not had thus far in his career. Fighting with Type 1 Diabetes has forced him to forgo heavy weight cuts but he was able to get down to 170 for this fight and looked good at weigh ins. Heavy strikes while using his wrestling background to stuff some takedowns is his path to victory here. Gall on the other hand is a very game submission artist who has an improved his striking to round out his game. The knock on both fighters is the same in that neither fighter has a deep gas tank. This will be a battle of who can implement their game plan better. If Gall is able to take Williams down or get ahold of his neck like Imavov was able to do in his previous fight we could be looking at a quick submission. We are leaning towards the other outcome which has Williams keeping this fight standing, stuffing a few takedowns and getting plenty of opportunities to put this fight away on the feet.

Prediction: Jordan Williams by 2nd or 3rd RD KO

Bet: Fade

Draft Kings: Both fighters are worth playing, whoever wins will make value. We will be heavier on Williams but with the price going to have some Gall cards as he is a live dog to get the sub.

Nassourdine Imavov +130 (7700) vs. Ian Heinisch -155 (8500)

This fight is a stylistic clash. in one corner you have Imavov who is looking to stand and throw punches while mixing in a little bit of grappling against a fighter in Heinisch who will be looking to get this fight to the ground early and often. Heinisch looked absolutely massive at weigh ins which is good because he’s going to need to overwhelm Imavov with pressure and power takedowns. This fight is going to go back and forth with each fighter having their moments and will ultimately come down to how the referees are scoring fights that night. We could see either outcome for this fight but are leaning towards Heinisch to grind out a close win on the mats.

Prediction: Heinisch by Split Deciscion

Bets: Fade

Draft Kings: Fade both fighters. Going to be a super competitive grinding fight that will take place in the clinch up against the fence for long periods of this fight.

Punahele Soriano -115 (8200) vs. Brendan Allen -105 (8000)

We have two very game fighters in this one. Allen is coming off a nice submission win vs. Roberson after coming off a loss to Strickland. Allen is a guy that wants to take this fight into deep water. His path to victory is to get this fight to the ground and begin to work his submissions. Soriano on the other hand has a good wrestling background and throws heat. He should be able to stop the takedowns of Allen and keep this fight standing. Soriano brings some serious output and power early and often but if Allen can survive the onslaught he has the skills to win with a late submission or steal round 2 and 3. With all that being said Soriano has looked great so far in the UFC with two brutal KO’s and gutted out a win in the contender series when he had to lean on his wrestling. We expect more of the same in this fight and expect Soriano to get an early KO after stuffing a few takedown attempts by Allen.

Prediction: Soriano by Rd 1 KO

Bet: Fight doesn’t go the distance -265 is the safest play here but we will be on Soriano by KO at +165

Draft Kings: This is a must play fight at the price. We are going to play a majority Soriano but will have some Allen incase he pulls off the submission.

Adrian Yanez -230 (9000) vs. Randy Costa +190 (7200)

Make sure you go to the bathroom before this one starts. All but guaranteed to be fight of the night for as long as it lasts. Two heavy hitters that will meet each other in the center of the octagon. Costa has some serious power and takes the right amount of risks to get the job done early and often. However, Yanez seems to be the more technical striker who isn’t afraid to trade. Costa gas tank will most likely deplete somewhere in the middle of the second round which is always a concern when he is chasing first round knockouts. It’s going to be an exciting scrap and if it ends early or late Yanez should be able to get the better of the striking exchanges with his more technical boxing and get a finish. Anytime you have two fighters that are going to stand and throw with each other anything is possible.

Prediction: Yanez RD 2 KO

Bet: Fight doesn’t go the distance -275. You don’t lose much value with this one and you take away the risk of a Costa KO.

Draft Kings: Going to play Yanez and have a few Costa. Whoever wins this fight will make value.

Miranda Maverick -150 (8400) vs. Maycee Barber +125 (7800)

This should be a good fight. You have two ultra athletic and physical fighters. Maverick seems to have a more well rounded game at this stage in her career. While Barber seems to have the raw athleticism she lacks the technical skills to put it all together. Barber brings an aggressive pace and apply her physicality to the fight but Maverick should be able to negate the pressure with her own athleticism and begin to pick her apart with her more polished striking. Wildcard in this fight is Maverick’s wrestling and if she is able to deploy a healthy dose of takedowns on Barber she will cruise to a clear decision victory. Tough fight and anything can happen but we are going to go with the more well rounded fighter here.

Prediction: Maverick by Decision

Bet: Maverick -150

Draft Kings: Maverick is a good play at 8400. She has scored well in both of her UFC fights from her high output high volume game plan. Add in a few takedowns here and she will make value.

Darren Elkins +130 (7600) vs. Darrick Minner -155 (8600)

If you enjoy a good grappling match this is the fight for you. Elkins has made a living out of toughness and heart. He is coming off a well fought submission victory vs. Garagorri but before that was on a 4 fight losing streak and is clearly in the twilight of his career. Minner is an aggressive grappler and submission artist that will go for broke in the first round. He has suffered from some cardio issues in the past but looked great in his last outing against Rosa in what was a grappling heavy affair from both fighters. If Minner has his gas tank issues behind him and takes a more calculated approach we feel he could dominate this fight with superior grappling and a fresher body from less years of war. The concern comes if Minner goes in heavy in the first round and can’t find a submission against a very game Elkins, leading a path for Elkins to begin his trademark second and third round comebacks. There are lots of question marks in this fight but one thing is for sure we have a younger and fresher fighter going against a savvy, tough fighter its going to be a war. We believe that Minner is maturing at the right time and if he can put it all together should be able to take this one.

Prediction: Minner by decision.

Bet: Fade

Draft Kings: When these guys win they score. Lots of take downs, control time and both fighters should be able to get back up if taken down. Probably sitting 60/40 here for Minner.

Kyler Phillips -280 (9200) vs. Raulian Paiva +230 (7000)

This will be a fun fight. Paiva is coming off a close decision with Zhumagulov at 125lbs. He will be moving up to bantamweight due to missed weight cuts. His striking looks quick and he has explosive kicks. He does lack accuracy with his punches and doesn’t seem to have KO power in his hands. He is athletic enough that his takedown defense has been serviceable and has shown a good ability to scramble back to his feet. Phillips on the other hand is a very well rounded fighter. He is quick with unpredictable strikes, but don’t let the unpredictability fool you he is very technical and accurate with these strikes. He will mix in well timed takedowns and grappling when needed. Even though Paiva is going up a weight class he may still be at a speed disadvantage against Phillips who has looked quick and explosive in the octagon so far. This fight comes down to having more tools in the toolbox and we are going with Phillips. We expect him to mix up the striking and throw in some takedowns in a fun but clear decision victory.

Prediction: Phillips by Decision

Bet: Not much here but will be putting Phillips on some parlays.

Draft Kings: Tough to play a 9K fighter when the path to victory is a decision. If you think Paiva is going to win the striking and can stop the takedowns he will make value at 7000 but we won’t be playing much of him.

Cory Sandhagen -195 (8800) vs. TJ Dillashaw +165 (7400)

One of the most exciting and unpredictable fights on this card is the main event. On one side you have the red hot Sandhagen coming off of two spectacular KO’s and looking to cement himself as the number 1 contender. On the other side you have the former champ Dillashaw coming off an embarrassing loss to Cejudo as well as an even more embarrassing 2 1/2 year suspension due to PED use. There is a range of questions regarding Dillashaw who is now 35 years old and coming off a long layoff. The biggest question will be how much of his strength which was pressure, pace and cardio was from his PED use. While both fighters are talented strikers, Sandhagen seems to have the advantage standing due to his size and length, as well as pinpoint accuracy and timing. While TJ is no slouch standing his best attributes are his movement, pace and ability to mix in his wrestling. A lot of the factors on paper seem to point to the red hot Sandhagen continuing his march towards a title shot but for some reason we can’t shake the feeling that his poor 30% takedown defense will be the most important statistic in this fight. We believe TJ will comeback looking like his old self and by doing so should be able to mix this fight up with Sandhagen. If Dillashaw can put Sandhagen on his back foot by mixing in some takedown attempts he will begin to win the striking exchanges. If TJ is successful on his takedowns he will cruise to an easy decision. Each fighter has a strong case for the win here but we are leaning Dillashaw. Maybe we are living in the past and the first few minutes will tell us everything we need to know.

Prediction: Dillashaw by Deciscion

Bet: Small bet on Dillashaw +165 because of the value at his price

Draft Kings: Always play a 5 rounder especially one like this where your going to be getting action both ways. Dillashaw will end up on more of our lineups with the price but we will mix in as much Sandhagen as we can.

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